Sunderland have pulled off improbable escapes before, but not this time. With an abysmal goal difference, a series of dreadful performances and an imbalanced squad, the Black Cats deserve the drop. The fans are resigned to this doom and are hoping the team gets promoted from the Championship first time of asking. The common belief is that the longer a team spends trying to get promoted, the harder it is. It's not an idea without merit—for one thing, if a team is stuck in the Championship for more than two seasons, they are twice as likely to be relegated again than promoted. So with the pressure really on, can the Black Cats find their way back in time for 2019/20?
Who did it first?
The task facing Sunderland isn't impossible. According to the Telegraph, 25% of relegated teams are promoted first time of asking. Four teams have managed it in the last five years—West Ham, QPR, Burnley and now Newcastle all made it. The Magpies have actually succeeded twice in the last eight years. But how did these teams succeed where so many have failed? There isn't a one-size-fits-all formula.
Sunderland indicated they wanted to retain the services of David Moyes after the drop, but his end of season relegation has put a kibosh on providing that kind of continuity. Keeping him could have worked, despite the dire football on display at the Stadium of Light this season—both QPR and Newcastle stuck by their managers after relegation, Harry Redknapp and Rafa Benitez respectively. The benefit of this course is stability at a tumultuous time for any club. West Ham didn't, preferring to sack incumbent Avram Grant and replace him with Sam Allardyce, who oversaw a significant and impressive reversal of fortunes in East London. Norwich tried to stick with their manager only for him to resign halfway through the Championship season, being replaced with Alex Neil who took the Canaries to promotion.
The Squads.
There's the state of relative squads on going down to consider too. Burnley, Newcastle and Norwich all managed to retain the general strength of their squads after relegation, losing one or two players but replacing them with solid additions. QPR were in a more difficult situation, having acquired a bloated squad of overpaid journeymen they simply could not afford to keep the team as it was. So, if Sunderland want to come back up, their best bet is to try and hold on to as many of their good players as they can—while shedding their highest earners. A season rebuilding in the Championship is often a chance for younger players to get a chance and develop in the first team. The problem for the Black Cats is that their best players are their younger members, including Jordan Pickford, already a target for several clubs. Their star striker Jermain Defoe is likely to leave on a free transfer thanks to a clause in his contract, and several veterans are reaching the ends of their contracts (and probably their playing careers).
Whoever the manager is next season at the Stadium of Light, he's going to have a huge job on his hands—Sunderland are up to their eyeballs in £140 million worth of debt. If they fail at promotion, it seems like a tumble down the leagues is on the cards.
Photo by Eric Harlow
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