Some tricky fixtures today, which is making me go for a handicap i usually try to avoid, so despite this still being a likely win, I am posting this double as just a suggestion, so if you have any doubts, just wait for the next official "Tipster's Double".
Double:
Cagliari v Novara - Asian handicap (0.0 Cagliari)
Benfica v U. Madeira - Asian handicap (-1.5 Benfica)
At time of posting, odds were 1.95
These matches can be found in the Italy and Portugal Leagues.
Our first selection (Cagliari) are looking likely candidates for automatic promotion into the Serie A, and it's largely thanks to their form at home being so strong, with 13 wins and 1 draw from their 14 home games this season. They keep things tight at the back, conceding only 9 goals in those 14 games, which i guess isn't too uncommon for a good Italian side. However, they also find the net on a regular basis, scoring over 2 goals per game on average at home. Their opponents tonight (Novara) are a decent team and did have a very good away record, however their recent form away from home has been very poor, managing just 1 point from their last 4 away games and scoring just a single goal. So, i think with the draw covered on this selection, it should be very safe, as it will be extremely unlikely for a team in poor form away from home to be able to inflict Cagliari's first home defeat of the season.
Our second selection (Benfica) is an obvious choice for a win today, however because it's such an expected result we are having to up the handicap a bit in order to make the odds worthwhile. Now even with a -1.5 asian handicap the win is likely, however it's always possible a team may just settle for a 1 goal lead, which is why i try and avoid these bets if possible. The reason this is still a likely bet though is because Benfica score on average over 3 goals per game at home, and 8 of their 9 home wins have been by a 2 or more goals margin. On top of that, half of their opponents (U. Madeira) losses away from home have been by a 2 or more goal margin, and they were all against teams who don't have the same level of quality as Benfica. Benfica have a 3 point deficit in the league to leaders Sporting, who they play next, so i don't think they will rest players as they need to focus on getting 3 points first tonight. I actually think they will try and get the job done early, by building up a nice lead as quickly as possible, so they can they substitute key players early in the 2nd half so they are rested for Sporting.
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