In my previous blog, I wrote about how football had evolved from grass roots to global phenomenon, but where is the sport heading? The clues are in the East, predominantly India and China.
Football is now the second sport in India, after cricket. It's also massive in China, and it's starting to explode. Last year, during the end of our season, I was watching a football match been played in China. The game was entertaining, and the favourites won 3-2, but that wasn't what caught my attention. It was the post match commentary about China's ambition, to have a $500bn sports industry. Sports industry experts were discussing the possibility of China's ruling communist party, investing heavily into their domestic sports. China have a heavily dependent manufacturing economy, and are slowly moving into a growing service economy. They hosted the 2008 Beijing Olympics, and now want to host the football World Cup, with potentially 2030 as a timescale, and judging by the corruption we've seen at FIFA in the not too distant past, I wouldn't bet against them. UEFA and FIFA are largely interested in television rights; it's where the bulk of their income comes from. Global sponsors were quick to distance themselves from the Blatter and Platini scandals. It made a mockery of FIFA, and brought forward an election to succeed Blatter. The corruption has been ongoing for years, and elected officials had turned a blind eye. If it wasn't for the USA's investigation into bribery allegations, the same elected officials would still be in lucrative jobs.
So both India and China have a domestic league, but they also have roughly 2.2 billion people. If only 20% follow football, that's still 440 million people, nearly the entire population of Europe. With tablets and smartphones, people can watch football without the need of a television. Jack Ma, the founder of internet giant Alibaba, has commented on the time to buy a football club in China is now. While the market is cheap and growing rapidly, local teams can tap into the domestic market. He has bought a football club, and so have other business friends of his. With plenty of billionaires in both India and China, money is not a problem. The climate is a problem, as the heat can be unbearable. Hence the attractiveness of the European leagues, with favourable conditions all year round. However most television deals are designed to appease the overseas markets.
Expect more games to be played to suit different time zones, not the season ticket holder. Could we see a drop in demand for football? It may follow the sport of boxing, which had it's hey day in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Is a radical overhaul of the football calendar a possibility, with a World league or European league? The top clubs are getting richer, and more powerful. With billionaires on every continent, it's only a matter of time before someone makes a move against FIFA and UEFA. I can visualise a day when football is run by billionaires, from A-Z. It's nearly there now, media rights, and club owners.
Cricket and Rugby are well-organised sports, but don't generate the same revenues as football. But players are paid professionals, and do play more than in previous decades. If football is to stay attractive to watch, it needs to adapt. Both cricket and rugby use video referral systems, yet in the Confederations Cup we saw too many bad decisions. Football needs to realise that the viewing public are not idiots, and giving biased decisions will only alienate the sport.
Guest written by Kully Bahia
Photo by Dzb0715
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