Even though it's November and we are nowhere near the halfway stage of the season it is fair to say that Liverpool, the defending champions, season is well and truly over in terms of back to back league titles. Who knows, Arne Slot's side may well surprise us with a change of form and a trophy, but as champions they have been poor. Last weekend they slumped to a 3-0 home defeat against lowly Nottingham Forest in what felt like a new low for the Reds.
After spending £400m in the summer Slot was envisaged with breaking free of a Jürgen Klopp dominated line up and moving Liverpool onto the next chapter. No one could have seen this coming especially after the club spent a combined total of a quarter of a billion pounds on German wondermeister Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak. Wirtz may come good but at the moment he can't handle the Premier League. Isak of course was a wizard for Newcastle last season and one of the best players in the league but for Liverpool he has been invisible. The real head scratcher is Mohamed Salah, a genuine club legend. How does such a gloriously talented player go so bad in a few months? Is this why we are still in awe of the aging Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo because in 20 years their consistency never dropped as low as Salah's has over the course of three months. The only excuse you can give Liverpool would be the tragic death of Diogo Jota. Make no mistake he would have been a close friend to many of this side. Have the players really had time to adjust to his loss in a world of football that moves at light speed? It's a valid point, then again some will argue that the Reds began the season in brilliant form with 5 wins in a row. And so what are we left with? Liverpool do not have knee jerk reactions to sacking managers and while the players will have a lot to answer for the buck will always stop at the manager. It is incredible to think that the sacking stories are now starting to surround Slot just six months after winning the league title but a club like Liverpool are not allowed to be occupying the bottom half of the table. With a flurry of fixtures set for December one has to seriously consider if this run continues throughout that period of time if Slot will still have a job?
Manchester City will not be able to challenge for a league title this season. That is the current thinking if they can't pick up points away from home. This past weekend that story continued as they failed to beat Newcastle at St James' Park. Consistency has always been key in winning titles of course and that almost no slip up attitude was invented by Chelsea and Roman Abramovich's millions in which Manchester City ironically carried that flag for a decade. This version of Manchester City still look devastating but now it's mostly at home and only on their day. You don't win leagues but you may win cups if you are a side that plays great only on your day. The frustration is real for manager Pep Guardiola who even had an altercation with a camera man. He must be scratching his head but he has a quality side that should have been enough to beat this Newcastle side. However in fact much like City Newcastle are the same in that their away form is poor. But the difference is that Eddie Howe's side are not challenging for a league title this season. Manchester City currently has 22 points and just 7 points have come on the road, they have lost 50% of their games this way. It's hard to win away in general in the Premier League though and that is underlined by the fact that despite a poor return City still has the 6th best away record in the league.
Manchester City Individual Odds: Manchester City to win the league at 4.33, Manchester City to finish in the top 4 at 1.08, To win a major trophy at 1.62
When Danny Welbeck joined Brighton in 2020 it was fair to say that at just 29 his career was on a downward trajectory. He had played for two huge sides in Manchester United and Arsenal and had failed to live up to expectations. His League goal return rate was just 21% at United and he had never scored double figures in the league at any one season at the club. Loan deals followed and then he got a surprise move to Arsenal. It was certainly an opportunity for him to prove himself once more. This felt like his final opportunity to do so. However from 88 league games played he was only able to return 16 goals and those stats were never going to stack up well, it felt as if Welbeck was one of the negative layers to Arsene Wenger's final days at the club. Brighton and a step down was Welbeck's new adventure. His first four seasons went to form with a league tally of 6,6,6 and 5. But since hitting 33 Welbeck has become, for a better word, good. In one and a half seasons he has scored 17 goals a remarkable average increase for him and like a fine wine he seems to be getting better with age. He deserves credit because he was heading for his last few years as a player into Championship level football but he is fighting and you only do that with plenty of work behind the scenes. Welbeck has impressed to such an extent there have been voices urging Thomas Tuchel to pick him for the World Cup. What a story that would make if he was able to make the final cut.
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