Premium Double #302
Wednesday's Fixtures.
Betting Tip:Dortmund vs Benfica -
Asian handicap (-1 Dortmund)Manchester City vs Stoke -
WIN (Manchester City) Odds: 1.82 888sport (At time of posting)
League: UEFA Champions League and England Premier League
Betting Tip Previews:Our first selection (Asian handicap -1 Dortmund) is a must win match for Borussia Dortmund. They lost the first leg at Estádio da Luz 1-0 despite dominating the match, so at the very least will require a win by 1 goal this time round just to stand a chance of taking this Champions League match into extra time. However if Benfica manage an away goal, then Dortmund will need to win by 2 or more goals in order to progress, hence the "-1 asian handicap". Fortunately for Dortmund, they are a far better team at Signal Iduna Park than when they are on their travels, with a domestic home record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, compared to an away record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses. The main reason for this contrast is the number of goals conceded, away from home they have conceded more than double the number of goals they have conceded at home. If we add to that the fact that Benfica are far less prolific goal scorers away from home, then a home win for Dortmund looks likely tonight. Benfica have a similar number of wins domestically whether it be home or away, however at home they have scored 34 goals in 12 games, yet away from home they have only managed 18 goals in 12 games. So given that Dortmund dominated the first leg and were a little unlucky not to get anything out of it, that their defence is far better at home, they have to win the game to progress, and Benfica's attack is less dangerous away from home, this selection should stand a good chance.
Our second selection (Manchester City) have been in great form in recent weeks, winning 8 of their last 8 games in all competitions. This has been largely down to their attacking strengths, with 23 goals scored in those 8 games, but they have also managed 5 clean sheets in the process, which shows they have an increased defensive harmony. The loss of Gabriel Jesus to injury in February was a blow as he was really making an impact, however Sergio Aguero has definitely stepped up to fill that void with 5 goals in his last 3 games. When Man City played Stoke earlier in the season, the game ended in a 4-1 away win for City, and generally speaking Stoke appear to struggle against the top sides when they are on their travels, which doesn't bode well for a visit to Etihad Stadium. Stoke have lost 5 of their last 6 away games, with their only win coming against bottom of the league Sunderland. Admittedly four of those games were against Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal, so you can't blame them for losing, however it was the way they lost each game that matters. Each one was by a 2 or more goal margin, with 3 of the 4 teams putting 4 goals past them. So unless some drastic changes in form have happened to both teams in the past few days, then this game should be a comfortable and likely high scoring home win.
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