When Dominic Calvert-Lewin left Everton after 9 years for newly promoted Leeds it never felt like a huge shift for the club or a monumental signing. This past summer when Alexander Isak switched in a controversial move from Newcastle to Liverpool it did. Isak had been outstanding for the Magpies and now the champions were adding him to the team. Most observers thought the league was already Liverpool's before a ball was kicked. However football remains an enigma within an enigma. It is Calvert-Lewin who is going to have the better season.
DCL has netted 7 times from 15 games and at present cannot stop scoring. To give you a comparison he only managed 10 league goals in his final 58 games for Everton. For Leeds he may equal that by 20 games or under. DCL is on course to break his personal best goalscoring record in the league which stands at 16 for Everton in the 2020/21 season. His career has been known for short comings and injury lay offs but we should remember he is only 28 and he has really responded well to manager Daniel Farke's change of tactics playing two up front a formation that has been more or less abandoned in the Premier League over the past decade. As for Isak, his fall has been huge. First he threw his toys out of the pram and demanded a move to Liverpool even though Newcastle under Eddie Howe were pointing in the right direction. Isak abandoned cult hero status at the club to join up with a successful bandwagon and went on strike until he got his dream move. Liverpool subsequently spent £125m on him and since then he's only managed 10 league games scoring just twice. Arguably his signing has upset the team more than add to it. Now his luck has gone too as he received a broken ankle this past weekend against Tottenham and is expected to miss several months. It's been a forgettable and nightmarish season for him. So a tale of two players one expected to shine one expected to plug away, football has a funny way of playing out.
The Premier League for now has turned into a three horse race and this just underlines the depth and quality of the league. First up is Arsenal of course who head into Christmas in 1st place with 39 points. The Gunners have added quality to their side which means when injuries come they have it covered and for the most part have looked like the best team in the league. This past month has seen a bumpy ride by their standards but they have still won 3 of their last four games. Arsenal have had to settle for only the 2nd best home record so far but that does not tell the full story given they are 2 points short over Manchester City but have played a game less. Away from home Mikel Arteta's side has the best record with 17 points from a possible 27. The club just looks very strong and absolutely this is the strongest Arsenal side we have seen in 22 years.
Manchester City after a poor last campaign by them were expected to have a transitional season but with 37 points they are only two behind Arsenal. It's been interesting so far in that Arsenal have looked far superior overall and yet only one win separates the sides. It is also interesting to note that over the last 10 games Arsenal would be in 3rd place behind both Manchester City and Aston Villa. At home Pep Guardiola's side have become machine like and that is the danger for their rivals. They have lost one already and almost let Leeds back in after going two goals up but it's 8 wins from 9 games. City do need to fix their overall away form as they have lost 3 times already but maybe they are already onto that given they have recently won back to back games.
And so to Aston Villa. We knew that manager Unai Emery was already quality given how strong Villa have been over the past 18 months which included qualification to the Champions League. This season has been something else though. The Villains have won 16 of their last 18 in all competitions and 10 of their last 11 in the Premier League. Only Liverpool have beaten them in the last 3 months. Incredibly Villa have earned 27 points from their last ten games and trail Arsenal by just three points. The league is so difficult though because this great form still would have meant trailing Arsenal by six points had they not beaten Manchester United at the weekend. There are fine margins indeed. It's been a very inconsistent first half of the season for the majority of clubs but at the elite end consistency still counts where draws can feel like defeats. Arsenal will remain the favourites but we know that they have failed sterner tests this season including no wins over Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City and Aston Villa that matters when you are trying to win the league. Manchester City for all their attacking greatness still look like they can be got at in defence. For now Aston Villa look the strongest but will the laws of averages give way, surely their unbeaten run can't simply go on?
To win the Premier League: Arsenal 1.72, Manchester City 2.50, Aston Villa 26.00
From one end of the table to the next and the relegation race is starting to heat up. It seems ludicrous to suggest that we already know one side that will be relegated as we are in December. But it's true. There has never been a club in the Premier League era as poor as Wolves. Perhaps that is harsh in terms of how they are playing but a return of just 2 points this season is pathetic. Wolves are 16 points from safety with 63 points still left to play for. But we know they are down because new manager Rob Edwards has had next to no impact and after managing six games he has overseen six losses.
Burnley are in 19th and are seven points from safety. They are heading for less than 30 points and surely that would spell the end of them if we consider a club like Nottingham Forest only need another 12 points the rest of the season. The Clarets have lost 12 games and are shipping two goals per match. Away form is hitting them badly with just four points won from a possible 27. For us they look destined to go down with Wolves. That leaves one place which might be fought over by three clubs. Currently West Ham are looking the most likely to go which may feel like a surprise given that they sacked Graham Potter early on and brought in Nuno Espirto Santo who has worked wonders at Wolves and Nottingham Forest. But Santo only has a win rate of 18% and West Ham overall do not look that good. They should fight at home though but recent form has been worrying overall with just two points won from 15. The Hammers have fallen five points behind Forest. Next up is Forest and Leeds. Forest have 18 points and Leeds have 19. It's a toss up between two at the moment for who may slip up. Sean Dyche has so much experience in these times that he may have enough in the end to surge forward. Leeds have a real belief about them though but can they sustain it? A lot can still change even before the year is out but if West Ham don't go forward in their next 2-3 fixtures they might be in real trouble.
To be relegated: Wolves 1.01, Burnley 1.05, West Ham 1.62, Leeds 5.00, Nottingham Forest 6.00
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