The Football League is back – and so is the chance to bet on promotion and relegation. What are the best tips for League One? Here's our verdict.
Charlton to win promotion
Although Charlton Athletic came 13th last season, that finish was nowhere near the benchmark for where a club of their size should be, not least with the players they have available.
The Addicks shipped just 21 goals in the 23 games Jason Pearce was available for last season and the veteran's centre-back partnership with the growing teenage talent of Ezri Konsa could be key.
The likes of Chris Solly and Johnnie Jackson have an affinity with supporters, particularly important at a time when many protest against Roland Duchatelet's regime. Left-back Jay Da Silva, who captained England Under-19s to European glory, restores a good blend of experience and youth. Da Silva will link up with Mark Marshall, when arguably League One's most creative winger returns from injury.
Another quality wide option is Ricky Holmes, Charlton's best attacking player last term, who has signed a new deal despite Sheffield United links. Both will create for Josh Magennis, who hit double figures last term but offers even more in terms of mobility and hold-up play.
Take Betway's 9/2 on the South Londoners to win promotion this year - odds correct as of 13th August.
Oldham to get relegated
Oldham saw yet another Shezurrection story in 2016/17. In similar circumstances to 2015/16, they ended up in 17th place, despite being bottom of the table when John Sheridan took over.
That improvement, which was based on keeping the opposition out, papers over the cracks somewhat. Their key outfield defensive performers, Anthony Gerrard, Brian Wilson, Paul Green and Peter Clarke are all the wrong side of 30. They have also lost the best goalkeeper in League One in loanee Connor Ripley, taking 94 days to replace him before Ben Wilson was drafted in just before Saturday's 2-0 home loss to Oxford.
No third tier team since 94/95 Leyton Orient (who finished 24 points adrift of safety) has scored fewer goals than their 31 last season. Although some might suggest the low budget means cautious tactics are inevitable, it will be difficult for the club to sustain itself at this level whilst showing so little intent with the ball.
It is unlikely that will change. New striker Craig Davies has played at higher levels but only scored three times in two years. Fellow new front man Courtney Duffus has only played in three professional encounters – all in 2014 for Bury – while Dan Gardner was a wide midfielder readily let go of by Chesterfield. Given that centre-back Clarke was the entire squad's second highest score last season, it will be hard for Latics fans to take too much encouragement from these additions.
With key defensive performers getting on, the attack barely looking stronger and no Ripley to save the day, this looks a tough season for Oldham. Oldham are 11/10 on them to suffer the drop.
McAleny to be top scorer
Conor McAleny scored 10 goals for Oxford last season in 18 appearances, four of which were as a substitute during his loan spell. If he continues at the same rate for his new club, Fleetwood Town, we can calculate that he would score 33 goals if he started every game. Naturally, some leeway should be given for the possibility of injuries or other reasons that see him dropped from the first eleven, but he has had an excellent eight months.
The former Everton academy product made the EFL Team of the Week scored twice on his debut for the Cod Army, who enjoyed a 2-0 opening day win over Rotherham United. In that match, he benefited significantly from the creativity of Bobby Grant on the right wing, showing good movement to get ahead of his marker to tap the cross home for the opener.
McAleny is very canny in the penalty area, but as he showed for two of his goals at Millwall at the end of last season, he can also hit them from distance. This range of goalscoring qualities, as well as the opening day brace, makes the 14/1 available on him to clinch the League One golden boot this term seem generous.
Southend to make the top six
On the opening day of the season, Southend United defeated Blackburn Rovers, the team almost every punter backs to win the title this year. They might only have won 2-1, but put in a performance that perhaps justified an even bigger margin of victory, with visiting goalkeeper David Raya forced into a string of saves.
Michael Kightly, an ex-Burnley man, predictably ran the show but fellow winger Jermaine McGlashan and centre-back John White were not far behind in performance levels, in a victory that came without key men such as Ben Coker and Anthony Wordsworth. Another important player, Ryan Leonard, started and scored in central midfield, which suggests he will stay despite links with Sheffield United and Millwall.
They have a range of options up top: the work rate of Simon Cox, the movement of Marc-Antoine Fortune and the pace of Callum Robinson to be going on with while even controversial goalscorer Nile Ranger could return to contention. The Shrimpers were not far away from the top six last season, so it may be worth taking Betway's 9/4 on them to get there this time around.
Wigan to win the title
Although it would be premature to judge Blackburn too harshly based on one poor performance at Roots Hall, better value for the title can be found elsewhere.
Wigan Athletic have arguably the best squad depth in the division. Sam Morsy will dominate midfields, as he did in the opening day win at MK Dons. The Latics' most creative player was Michael Jacobs, who caused problems by cutting in from wide areas. Unlike goalkeepers they had last season, Christian Walton looks calm and comfortable between the sticks and is ably protected by captain Dan Burn.
At the other end, there are options too. On Saturday, Cook had the luxury of taking off Ivan Toney, a player Scunthorpe fans wanted to keep and bring on Will Grigg, who has scored 19+ goals in three of his last four seasons at this level. Behind the striker, there is also Nick Powell, who has scored goals in the Europa League and for Manchester United, surely a class above this level in terms of individual talent.
Wigan have a big budget for this level and an infrastructure that is not dissimilar to Brighton. Paul Cook consistently measures up to his resources and if that continues in West Lancashire, the 7/1 on Wigan for the title looks generous.
Photo by Mark Fosh
© Copyright topfootballtipster.com 2019
